Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-06 32.365079 35.922177 39.903754 44.730771 50.479334 57.177514 65.680170
2025-07-13 26.729912 31.295877 36.849076 44.248975 54.093375 67.121899 86.388087
2025-07-20 23.440599 28.491557 35.012229 44.346187 57.920023 77.974431 112.244599
2025-07-27 21.296377 26.646665 33.886903 44.879245 62.143020 90.366996 146.136525
2025-08-03 19.363991 24.751511 32.303472 44.302145 64.349173 100.068913 180.785775
2025-08-10 17.982049 23.416754 31.275406 44.286379 67.324860 112.013652 228.615748
2025-08-17 16.922065 22.405111 30.559120 44.582730 70.830784 126.274970 295.652780
2025-08-24 15.917229 21.362635 29.650410 44.369145 73.279827 139.282134 375.366754
2025-08-31 15.086945 20.500160 28.916148 44.318685 76.010067 154.246362 487.638273
2025-09-07 14.323863 19.672255 28.142970 44.063937 78.233449 169.090750 634.833827
2025-09-14 13.727360 19.054478 27.649709 44.248927 81.479131 188.841997 879.940605
2025-09-21 13.142980 18.410089 27.045694 44.123587 83.971295 207.972194 1228.112252
2025-09-28 12.920257 18.357138 27.498750 46.279107 93.057421 259.446617 2607.239517
2025-10-05 12.333743 17.665931 26.761996 45.868571 95.365888 287.168410 4580.170482
2025-10-12 11.873860 17.154941 26.305142 45.997503 99.304022 327.844688 11331.324129
2025-10-19 11.510319 16.780948 26.064055 46.567747 104.815162 385.904738 74926.878328
2025-10-26 11.036004 16.185503 25.354160 45.960158 106.467970 424.711480 NaN
2025-11-02 10.668688 15.753648 24.920905 45.944043 110.148492 486.340272 NaN
2025-11-09 10.365512 15.415661 24.640598 46.257202 115.169927 573.328449 NaN
2025-11-16 10.028180 14.997471 24.168911 46.031642 118.203690 653.796185 NaN
2025-11-23 9.731947 14.636826 23.784792 45.978359 121.969111 759.808359 NaN
2025-11-30 9.434991 14.259435 23.339431 45.709330 124.841177 872.042119 NaN
2025-12-07 9.200160 13.983290 23.081268 45.904689 129.865276 1053.661666 NaN